← ISOM 835 · Session 1
Interactive · Bias, Variance & Noise, Live

The Overfitting Explorer

A hidden demand curve — price on the x-axis, weekly units sold on the y-axis — seen only through noisy weekly observations. Fit a polynomial of growing complexity and watch training error fall forever while test error turns back up. The gap between the two curves is the noise your model memorized.

Training weeksHeld-out weeks Fitted modelTrue demand curve
hover over the chart to read the model's prediction at a price…
Error vs. complexity — the bias–variance curve
Train RMSETest RMSE▮ the gap = memorized noise
Honest scorecard
Train RMSE—
Test RMSE—
Gap (test − train)—
Best degree on test data—

The model: units = β₀ + β₁·price + β₂·price² + … + β_d·price^d, fit by least squares on the training weeks only. The test weeks never touch the fit — that is why their error is the only number the business should believe.